Friday, December 12, 2014

The Evolution of the Avalanche Forecast: Problems, Likelihood, Consequence


The definition of risk is often described in terms of chance or probability. In the world of avalanche forecasts, avalanche hazard has often been hamstrung by this definition. An example of this problem is often seen during periods of deep slab or persistent problems, when the low likelihood of a major event--despite the severe consequences of such an event--warrants merely a moderate hazard rating. A fatal example of this occurred on December 26, 2013, when a rider triggered a deep slab on Jackson Hole's "Pucker Face" that subsequently killed him.

In 2005-06, building on Roger Atkins 2004 ISSW paper, the Utah Avalanche Center pioneered incorporating "Avalanche Problems" into their avalanche advisories. This system has since been widely adopted throughout North America. The UAC's platform can be found HERE. We blogged about the use of this format in Canada HERE. An example from the Crested Butte Avalanche Center can be found HERE.

Taking this one step further--essentially combining likelihood and consequence to say, "so what?"-- Drew Hardesty and the forecasters at the Utah Avalanche Center have developed an additional component in their daily forecasts. In this new platform, the given hazard rating will be accompanied with a Travel Precaution Advisory.


Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Mammut offers 30% discount on level-1 avy courses

We hope this holiday season Mammut can bring cheer to your home.  However, rather than simply outfitting you we would like to give a gift that keeps on giving:  education.  Mammut is partnering with four guide services across the US to offer skiers and riders a 30% discount on the cost of a Level-1 avalanche safety course when you purchase a Mammut airbag or beacon.  All Mammut avalanche airbags and avalanche beacons come with a "test and feel voucher" which is redeemable for the course discount at one of these participating providers
Click here to see a list of participating course providers